#forecasting

OpenAI launched GPT-Live, a full-duplex voice model backed by GPT-5.5 reasoning, while xAI's Grok 4.5 topped SaaS automation benchmarks at one-quarter the cost of rivals. OpenAI also retracted its recommendation of SWE-Bench Pro after auditing found 30% of its tasks broken. Prime Intellect raised $130M to bring frontier reinforcement learning infrastructure to any company. In pharma, AstraZeneca and Ionis reported a major trial failure in a competitive heart disease market, the White House reviewed FDA commissioner finalists, and RFK Jr. moved to create a formal list of Covid vaccine injuries. The NY Fed found tariff cost pass-through to consumers is still in the pipeline.

The US government issued an export control directive suspending all access to Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for foreign nationals, a move that rattled the AI industry and prompted Tyler Cowen to note the equilibrium was hard to solve for. Separately, Arvind Narayanan and Sayash Kappoor published a detailed argument that software engineers won't be replaced by AI, citing task fragmentation and the compounding cost of errors. The FDA approved Sanofi's teplizumab for children with stage 3 type 1 diabetes after it cleared a dispute between career staff and political appointees. Noah Smith asked whether Chinese corporate debt could zombify the economy, while Patrick Boyle examined how SpaceX humiliated Wall Street by retaining founder control across 25x more fundraising than typical startups.

The FDA's leadership vacuum deepened this week as the drug center head followed Commissioner Makary out the door, leaving the agency with no confirmed leadership at its two most critical posts. Open-weight models kept multiplying with Gemma 4, DeepSeek V4, and Kimi K2.6 all dropping in the same month, while Sebastian Raschka's analysis of new KV-sharing and compressed attention techniques explains why long-context costs are falling fast. A rare Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in Congo's Ituri province prompted a WHO public health emergency declaration, and the WHO's move landed as hantavirus conspiracy theories were already cycling through social media. On the economy side, Trump's China visit produced mixed signals on decoupling, while Noah Smith argued that Europe's comfortable stagnation is no longer viable.